Realistic Delivery Date - An Intelligent Guess

fidelg3 posted 16th of March 2009 in Community Voice. 17 comments.

Many good folks in this community are now reporting bugs with the new Dolphin 7. They are doing a commendable job of testing and reviewing it--all for free because of their passion for this fine software.


After reviewing some of the bugs being reported, I got to thinking. Wouldn't it be great if the community could intelligently guess at a realistic date of delivery for the official Dolphin 7, based on the bugs being reported and our combined experiences fixing similar bugs?


By tracking the kinds of bugs and what we estimate the fixes could take in hours or days, we could sum up all this and come up with what we think would be a resonable date of delivery.


We could categorize these "bugs" into some very simple categories. For these simple categories some of us developers could assign a delivery timeframe in hours or days. By counting how many bugs fall into these categories and then multiplying by the hours/days and summing, we could estimate a date.


Based on the bugs I have been reading about, these are the categories I suggest:


1. Critical - these bugs are show stoppers and Dolphin could not be released without fixing these types of bugs.


2. Tolerable - these bugs are not disruptive, but rather annoying. Dolphin could be released with these in place, but would need to be fixed eventually to keep everyone happy.


3. Desirable - these are not really bugs, but rather things that are missing or that would be nice to have. Many of the "glamorous" features that Boonex is promising would fit this category.


I know this is crazy, but let's see how the community responds. Is anyone up for the challenge? Perhaps someone has experience doing this sort of timeframe estimation.


In the absence of a specific delivery date or a "hopeful" date, what does the community think would be a better date of delivery?


Someone tell me to shut up or to "let's roll and see what we come up with". Regardless, this community is really awesome and has some great thinkers.

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I think what you have stated is a good idea myself. We all know that this won't come out of the box bug free.
Hi LightWolf,

I read your post that asks about the missing timeline for Dolphin 7.

Now that we have a Dolphin 7 Preview and some people reporting "bugs" about it, we could come up with a better estimate. Of course, since this is just a "preview" our estimate will be tainted.

However, how close do you think this "preview" is to the real thing? Why would Boonex put out a "preview" which is see more too far off from the real thing? I think this "preview" resembles a good percentage of the status of the real deal.

You know this type of intelligent guessing is similar to scientists theorizing about the composition of the planet Mars. They base their thoughts on the available data, which are photographs and most recently mineral experiments conducted by the Mars Rovers. As they gather more data, their theories become more certain.

I say if we can keep using and testing the "preview" we will gather more data and thus have a better understanding of the current status of the real deal.
I personally don't believe the new D7 will be released anytime soon. I am thinking 2 months as there still is a lot to do including css profile changes for members accounts to create their own web page.
Andrew did say that the hard work was done and the rest was straight forward... I estimate 6 weeks from today (17th march).
I just got off the phone with my bookie in Vegas and the current Over/Under for Dolphin RC1 is 9 weeks
Andrew Boon
LOL, yeah... you guys rock.

Seriously though, it is a tough guess to make. We'll be updating Trac with new timelines and roadmap, so I guess it would give better idea.
Thanks unoboonex! Want to make a wager on release date houstonlively? Winner has to cook loser dinner and I like sea food please.hahahahaha
Hmmm...... winner has to cook for the loser? OK. I'll accept that wager: ) I predict it will be released later today. Now let's hear your prediction, so it will all be right here in writing.
Oh my, i really need to stay off the coffee...I meant loser has to cook winner
>>I just got off the phone with my bookie in Vegas
That's hilarious!

Thanks for keeping this thing in perspective. Sometimes I tend to go off the nerdy side of things.

unoboonex: U know u have a great community here. The more you keep us involved the better we can help you. It is ok to give us a timeline to let us know about your progress. It is ok to put out this thing in pieces and then to tell us to test the crap out of it.

Does anybody know how the Linux community gets so many see more passionate developers involved? Boonex should not be secretive about their timeline. You know there is power in numbers. If u have a community who wants to help, find ways to keep them involved. Actually this would be a great post to start: In what ways can this communtiy help Boonex.
LOL houstonlively send the action to my site!!!! Maybe I should start taking bets!!!!

the timing sucks only because it looks so good!!
Okay i predict it will come out the anniversary day of when our Volcano erupted (May 18th). That would be a great celebration!
Last night i was bored and i decided to play with my crystal ball and i saw something i think i should tell you houstonlively..Please don't be mad at me, but my crystal ball says you will NOT receive the new dolphin and i will get first crack at it before you. I'm sorry to have to tell you this, but you a big boy, you can handle

Crystal ball never lies!

Besides your Crystal Ball, do you do any sort of witchcraft to make the delivery date sooner? It would be awesome if you could set the date for Boonex and they would unconsciously deliver Dolphin by your date, due to supernatural forces.
I just realized after reading this, it may sound a bit sarcastic to you. I actually meant to put a "just kidding or hahaha" at the end. I really like your witty, facetious comments. Sorry.
Oh how i wish i could change ones free it is okay, i hear this stuff all the time. If i tried witch craft i would probably wind up turning houstonlively into a frog instead. then where would we be? Well we know where houstonlively would be (lily pad)...hahahaha
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