I concur. It's in human nature - we are social, but not "global" creatures. People connect with their peers in different environments and mostly in small groups. The only thing that keeps and will for a while keep giant SNSs afloat is absence of popular federated identity technology and as a result - trapped social graphs.

Read this...

All your friends are on Facebook.

... now contemplate that for a moment. Does it sound right? Where are all your friends in real life? Do you see more ever say things like "all my friends are on Acer Arena/RCcars Club"? And even if you do have all your friends somewhere... do you not have other means to connect with them if you want to?

Your identity, online or offline may not and should not belong to anyone but you. Nobody but you may have authority over your identity. Your Facebook profile or your Dolphin profiles must ultimately work only as a manifestation of your temporary presence on a site.

Now, imagine the works where all your friends/circles/connections are universally accessible through all and every site that enables social networking. Would you care much about Facebook then?

Simple example - when you want to share something with your friends - say, sing a song for them, show pics or a movie, or tell them a story... do you have to go somewhere to do that? You sure may, but do you HAVE to? Not at all, you could just invite them to your place, call them, email them, etc. etc.

Facebook or any other big SNS for that matter are only temporary fix for the lack of effective instruments of distributed sharing. In another 4-5 years we'll live in the world of small niche, content-oriented sites. Internet is/was designed to be distributed and to allow de-monopolisation of everything. it has to happen.